Many Guyanese are in despair arising out of the political deadlock and the failure of our politicians to resolve it. Many understand that relying only on the judiciary can only result in winners and losers. One round of the perpetual ethno-political competition would be over with the completion of the court proceedings. Whatever the outcome, the next round would come with the elections, whether held this year or next year. In this sense, the decision of the CCJ will solve nothing that is fundamental to the reality of Guyana’s existence and its challenges.
Whatever the CCJ’s decision and whenever the elections are held, Guyana’s problems will remain and would be no nearer to a solution. The economic slowdown will persist, poverty and unemployment will continue to increase, a high crime rate will perhaps get worse, corruption will grow by leaps and bounds and the ethno-political contest, an important driver of most of the above, will be no nearer to a solution.
Guyana’s main political parties will only be interested in constitutional reform to transform our ethno-political system, if a sufficiently large portion of the electorate demands it. Consider the following: In free and fair elections, the PPP will obtain either the votes of the majority or of a plurality because the Indian Guyanese population is the largest single block. The PNCR will obtain the second largest number of votes because African Guyanese are the second largest block.
Local government elections are to be held on November 12. With it, the never-ending stream of suspicions emerged as the Government established new local government units and merged others. The Opposition argued that these were done to give an advantage to the Government and the Opposition, through one of its representatives, promptly launched legal proceedings. This event provided the explanation for the ‘disappearance’ of the Chief Elections Officer, Mr. Keith Lowenfield, on one of the most critical days of the elections process, namely, the day after the submission of lists, when corrections have to be made and defects rectified.
The AFC declared on Monday last that it would be contesting the November 12 local
government elections on its own. It could be that in the discussions between the parties
the AFC put forward for the local government elections the same formula agreed in the
Cummingsburg Accord, signed by the parties on February 14, 2015. Under that formula
the AFC got 40 percent of the seats in the National Assembly and of ministries. Far
higher than its showing in the two previous elections, this percentage was necessary for
APNU to entice the AFC, because a coalition was necessary to defeat the PPP. The
apportionment was retained for the last local government elections but it is clear that
APNU has now likely proposed a smaller proportion for the AFC, which the latter has
clearly refused to accept.
An extensive debate is currently raging in the media on the Government’s lethargic approach in preparation for the oil industry. Among the contentious issues are legislation for local content, the sovereign wealth fund, petroleum legislation, the department of energy. The most glaring deficit appears to be the lack of expertise in Guyana on oil and gas and the deep concern that these issues will not be addressed in time for 2020 when the production of oil is due to begin. Mr. Imran Khan’s eloquent defence of the government’s efforts recently on an Al Jazeera television programme which included Messrs. Christopher Ram and Jan Mangal, has not diminished concerns.