THE SECOND SUCCESSIVE LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS IN 45 YEARS


Prior to the announcement of the date for local government elections, there was speculation, particularly in Opposition circles, that the Government would find reasons not to hold the elections. It was believed that the Government had performed so badly that it would suffer significant losses and would not want to expose its flank, now that general elections are only two years away. The announcement in July by the Minister of Communities, Mr. Ronald Bulkan, that local government elections will be held on November 12 killed that speculation. The more significant news came later. It was reported that APNU and the AFC could not agree on a joint slate for the elections and would be going to the electorate separately. The long term viability of the coalition was put on the table. But observers welcomed the opportunity that it would give some indication of the relative strengths of the political parties, not by the number of seats they win, because of the element of the first past the post system in the elections, but by the number of votes that they obtain. Caution would have to be exercised in such assessments because of the expected low turnout, unless polls are conducted to determine the percentage turnout of supporters of each of the three contesting parties. Polls such as these complicated and are not conducted in Guyana.

The campaign has not met with great public enthusiasm. The coalition has suffered criticism from a poor economy, reports of corruption and bad governance for the Auditor General’s Report and the absence of President Granger, who has been receiving medical attention in Cuba over the past two weeks. Prime Minister Moses Nagamootoo, known as a dynamic election campaigner while in the PPP, has had to concentrate in rejuvenating the flagging fortunes of the AFC, which has been receiving very small attendances at its public meetings. It might well be that these factors will result in an especially low turnout of the governing parties’ supporters and will suppress their overall results. PNC/PNCR/APNU supporters have traditionally stayed away from the polls since the 1979 Referendum when wishing to express their disapproval.

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DEAD MEAT


The AFC declared on Monday last that it would be contesting the November 12 local government elections on its own. It could be that in the discussions between the parties the AFC put forward for the local government elections the same formula agreed in the Cummingsburg Accord, signed by the parties on February 14, 2015. Under that formula the AFC got 40 percent of the seats in the National Assembly and of ministries. Far higher than its showing in the two previous elections, this percentage was necessary for APNU to entice the AFC, because a coalition was necessary to defeat the PPP. The apportionment was retained for the last local government elections but it is clear that APNU has now likely proposed a smaller proportion for the AFC, which the latter has clearly refused to accept.

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