Venezuela’s most recent belligerent act, the unprovoked and aggressive intrusion into Guyana’s maritime space, attracted widespread condemnation, including from the United States. This atrocity is certainly intended to intimidate Guyana and to escalate tensions. It may also well be that with a US company, Exxon, with partners, engaged in extracting oil from within Guyana’s EEZ, one of Venezuela’s objectives was to send a message to the US that it can create trouble in this region after the US terminated Chevron’s licence. Venezuela has got its answer in the US’s condemnation.
This act, together with the construction of a military base on Ankoko, massing troops and equipment on the border, its referendum and signing of a bill in April 2024 to incorporate Essequibo as part of Venezuela, its purported plans to hold elections in Essequibo, its embrace of criminal violence across the border by Venezuelan armed gangs, all suggest that Venezuela intends to commit acts that are permanently violative of Guyana’s sovereignty in a way that is more pronounced than in the past. Guyana must assume that Venezuela is no longer considering whether or not it will do so. Guyana must also assume that Venezuela is only deciding when, where and in what manner it can permanently alter the status quo in pursuit of its insatiable greed for Guyana’s territory and natural wealth. But the US’s reaction to its intrusion in Guyana’s maritime space, and the wide international condemnation that it engendered, indicate the nature of the opposition it will face. Guyana cannot afford to speculate on other motives Venezuela may have in relation to its relations with the US.
The only way to derail Venezuela’s nefarious objective of intimidating Guyana and seizing its territory, is for Guyana to continue to encourage international public opinion to condemn Venezuela’s egregious acts of hostility against Guyana, including by China, which has substantial investments in oil, CNNOC in Guyana’s EEZ in partnership with Exxon, and other business relations with the government, and Russia. These countries need to get off the fence having regard to Venezuela’s aggression. At the same time Guyana must continue, as it has been doing, to invoke the sanction of international law against Venezuela’s actions.
On the surface, Venezuela gives the impression that it has little regard for international public opinion and international law. But the reality is quite different. Despite the bombast of Venezuela and of its leaders, its government is weak and unstable, subject to US sanctions and international opprobrium because of rigged elections and the massive suppression of the resistance of internal democratic forces.
Guyana has been very active in mobilizing international opinion, as has been seen in the Venezuela’s recent aggression in Guyana’s maritime space as well as invoking international law. The bill in 2023 to create a Venezuelan state to be called “Guayana Essequiba” came after a referendum was purportedly supported. Guyana complained to the ICJ which found that the “circumstances present a serious risk of Venezuela acquiring and exercising control and administration of the territory in dispute in the present case.” The ICJ ordered that the “Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela shall refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute, whereby the Cooperative Republic of Guyana administers and exercises control of that area.”
Continued Venezuelan belligerence in flagrant disregard of the ICJ’s provisional measure triggered the signing of The Argyle Declaration in St. Vincent and the Grenadines on 14 December 2023. It provided that “both States shall refrain, whether by words or deeds, from escalating any conflict or disagreement arising from any controversy between them.” With this kind of behaviour, no one needs to be convinced that Venezuela, at this time, has scant regard for international agreements and international law and intends to pursue its hostile conduct to Guyana and eventually to intimidate Exxon and its partners to stop oil production and to invade Guyana’s territory.
Guyana has not given up, cannot afford to do so and must continue to mobilise international opinion and international law which can together disrupt Venezuela’s appetite for aggression and for Guyana’s territory and wealth. To this end Guyana last week filed another request to the ICJ for provisional measures based on Venezuela’s planned elections in May for a Governor of its new state of “Guayana Essequiba” which is located in Essequibo in Guyana. Guyana seeks the following orders: Venezuela shall not conduct elections on Guyana’s side of the boundary line; shall not extend the right to vote to individuals in the territory; presenting or naming candidates for elections in the territory; establishing polling stations, counting stations or electoral offices; communicating with residents with regard to any elections; purporting to extend the right to vote; distributing ballot papers; presenting or naming candidates and several others.
Guyana sees little difficulty in being able to persuade the ICJ to grant these provisional measures against Venezuela which would be in line with its earlier provisional measure that both States shall refrain from escalating any conflict or disagreement arising from any controversy between them. The ICJ would find little difficulty in finding that Venezuela is guilty. Guyana needs to use such a platform to further build its international efforts.