A DRONE FLEET FOR GUYANA’S DEFENCE
Before the ink was dry on the Geneva Agreement in 1966, Venezuela invaded Guyana’s half of the island of Ankoko. Since then, its aggressive intent against Guyana has manifested itself in many ways. Over the past five years, Venezuela’s aggression against Guyana has expanded, encompassing land and sea. That new aggression consists of both a military build-up in equipment and personnel in border regions and threatening postures and incursions in relation to our territory and waters. Venezuela claims almost the entire area of Guyana’s maritime space in the Atlantic Ocean. It extends offshore from the mouth of the Essequibo River and projects far into the Atlantic north and west of a 70-degree azimuth line from the Essequibo coast. Venezuela’s claim encompasses almost the whole of Guyana’s EEZ including the Stabroek Block. Venezuela has a “Military Defence Zone” to administer the maritime area that it claims.
As regards the Essequibo region, Venezuela has incorporated it as a state, a part of its territory by law. It has held elections for representatives in its legislative bodies to represent ‘Guayana Essequiba.’ While these were ‘mock’ elections in that no elections were actually held in Essequibo, nevertheless Venezuela’s has purportedly annexed Guyana unlawfully. Acts of violence believed to be perpetrated at the instigation of Venezuela across the border and elsewhere has underlined the need for Guyana to maintain a strong defensive posture against any potential aggression by Venezuela which continues to pose an existential threat to Guyana. No doubt Guyana authorities are assessing recent developments between the US and Venezuelaand what it means for Guyana, if anything. In any event, Guyana cannot afford to let down its guard.
Guyana has never had the resources to build its defencecapability to a degree where it would be able to repel a major Venezuelan attack or confront a Venezuelan invasion by sea or land. This situation might just be changing with Guyana’s increasing income and the changing methods of warfare upon the introduction of drones.
The United States has long used drones (UAV – Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) as a cost effective and more effective method in its fight against terrorism since 9/11 for both surveillance andtargeted killings of specific individuals with minimal risk to personnel. They have been used to track, identify and eliminate targets and to destroy communication and command and control facilities. Over time the use of drones by the US for these purposes came under severe criticism for the killing of innocent civilians, the targeting of civilians and violation of both US and international law. The use by drones by the US for targeted killings has been significantly reduced although the drone fleet of the US has increased substantially.
Drone attacks on individuals, buildings and installations are now a substantial part of warfare. The Ethiopian Government relied heavily on the use of drones supplied by Turkey, Iran and China to repel Tigrayan advances on Addis Ababa in 2021 at a time when it appeared that the Tigrayan forces had momentum. Drones are being used extensively by both sides in innovative ways in the war, or ‘special military operation,’ between Ukraine and Russia. Drones were used extensively by Israel in its genocide in Gaza. In the current war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, extensive use of drones by Iran are a vital component of its military operations.
The use of drones has substantially altered the nature of the Russia-Ukraine war. Both sides have been using small, cheap, inexpensive, FPV (first person view) drones extensively to hunt soldiers, vehicles and artillery in real time. Drones are far cheaper than missiles and aircraft the latter of which, in anycase, Guyana cannot afford. In any military confrontation, Guyana would normally have had to rely on its infantry. No doubt it will perform well but in confrontation with Venezuela’s superior numbers and equipment, casualties can potentially be high. The use of drones in ‘swarm’ attacks can be decisive in such a case. Cheap drones can also effectively challenge and severely damage warships.
Venezuela has approximately 120,000 troops, 700 tanks, 1,500 armoured fighting vehicles, 24 combat aircraft, 2 submarines, 6 frigates and 40 patrol boats. While it is not known what type of forces Venezuela will deploy in an invasion of Guyana, it could be contemplated that it would use ships, boats and/or infantry. Guyana’s terrain is not suited for tanks. Armoured vehicles could be deployed. These troops and types of equipment are susceptible to attack by drones and can be damaged or destroyed.
Guyana no longer needs to fear Venezuela’s military superiority. It now has the resources to acquire thousands of cheap drones over time as well as a smaller number of expensive and sophisticated ones if necessary, including ‘suicide’ drones which crash and explode into its objective. With only a few thousand of cheap drones, with personnel trained and operating them from secret locations, heavily protected both militarily and electronically so that their locations cannot be detected, no invasion force, or one that is attempting to invade, will be safe. Guyana is finally in a situation where it can militarily prevent or defeat any attempt by Venezuela to invade our territory.
