THE END OF THE WAR AGAINST IRAN?
It has been difficult to write about the US/Israeli war against Iran because events have been moving so fast that before an article can be published new assessments become necessary. The pause in the fighting since February 28 took place last Wednesday, April 8, in what has been described as a two-week truce after a remarkable series of events which are considered below.
Some certainties have been noted by experts and commentators. It is now agreed that Israeli Prime Minister, Nethanyahu, persuaded President Trump to join Israel in the war against Iran, which he has been planning for forty years and for which he has unsuccessfully sought the support of past US Presidents. On the possibility of the assassination the Iranian Supreme Leader at a meeting which he was soon due to hold, and on the promise that the Iranian ‘regime’ will quickly collapse before it can mobilise to unleash war against the Gulf states or close the Strait of Hormuz, as it had threatened if it were attacked, President Trump was persuaded to join Israel in the war. Many have asserted that the reason behind Israel’s desire for regime change or the wrecking of Iran is because it is an obstacle to the creation of a greater Israel incorporating Palestinian lands, Syrian lands and southern Lebanon and the establishment of Israel as the dominant power in the Middle East.
From Iran’s perspective, it viewed the war against it by Israel and the US as an existential threat. It obviously calculated that it had to defend itself by the use of drones and missiles against Israel and allies of the US in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which twenty percent of oil, gas and fertilizers pass daily. Iran obviously calculated that, while it cannot win the war, it cannot lose if it is not defeated. It clearly figured that if it can prolong the war long enough to create internal opposition at least in the US, exhaust both Israel and the US and their munitions and demonstrate the potential harm that can be done to the world’s economy by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it can emerge from the war with its government and institutions intact and its survival assured. Its strategy appears to have had a measure of success.
After five weeks of war, it was clear to the US that Iran was not going to succumb, the US and world economy will be irreparably harmed and the defeat of the Republican Party at the forthcoming mid-term elections was becoming more of a certainty. This explains the reason why President Trump repeatedly reported that negotiations were being conducted with the Iranians and were going well. These assurances were also being made to calm the stock market and arrest the increase in the price of oil. While they may have worked temporarily, there was no permanent fix. The US was in a dilemma.
President Trump’s frustration was reflected in a tweet that he posted on his platform, Truth Social, on Tuesday, April 7, threatening to terminate Iran’s civilization. He said: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want it to happen, but it probably will.” This astonishing threat of annihilation of an entire civilization is unprecedented in the history of the civilized world. Even more remarkable, President Trump announced hours later that he has agreed to a two-week truce conditional upon the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. He accepted Iran’s 10-point plan as a “workable basis for negotiation.” Whether intended or not, the US has, by its acceptance of Iran’s 10-point plan as a “workable” basis for negotiation, is signaling that it concedes that Iran’s proposals are legitimate issues for negotiation. It now remains to be seen what the negotiations will bring forth, if anything.
Israel’s position is that it supports the ceasefire between the US and Iran but that it is not part of the ceasefire and its war against Lebanon will continue. Israel emphasized its point by bombarding Lebanon and massacred 350 persons at the last count. Israel’s intention is really to wreck the ceasefire and continue its destruction of Iran and Lebanon. Its plan for Lebanon is to do what it did to Gaza, level the country, displace its people and occupy the south. For Iran its plan is essentially the same except occupation. But Iran is too large and populous to decimate in the same way so it hopes to damage its institutions in such a way that it will cripple the country. This time around, Iran has a ‘trump’ card – the Strait of Hormuz. But it has more. Its allies, Hezbollah, came to Iran’s aid by attacking the south, as it has a right under international law to do, and the Ansar Allah of Yemen, also known as the Houthis, were ready to shut down the Red Sea at any time.
One thing is clear, the Iranians are prepared to continue the war. They are aware that they have a strong hand and enough drones and missiles to continue. We shall have to wait and see if the US will blink again. It first blinked when it accepted the 10-point Iranian Plan as workable. If it accepts core Iranian demands, such as its control of the Strait of Hormuz, it would have blinked twice. And that’s all that is needed to bring the war to an end.
