Under the cover of diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, Israel launched 200 fighter jets against Iran on June 13 targeting, but not limited to, facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. Senior members of Iran’s military leadership and nuclear scientists were assassinated. At the time of writing 420 persons have been killed in Iran and 29 in Israel. Israel has indicated that the war is not going to end anytime soon as its objective is the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and its capacity to enrich uranium. Iran has responded with scores, if not hundreds, of drones and missiles, many of which have penetrated Israel’s much vaunted air defence systems. The cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa have suffered severe damage including, it is believed, buildings relating to Israel’s military and intelligence agencies.
Some days before June 13, rumours began to circulate that Israel was about to launch its war against Israel, which it has been threatening for years because, allegedly, Iran was about to build a nuclear bomb. This lie, exposed on this occasion by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US intelligence, which President Trump has chosen to disbelieve, is similar to the lie used by the US to invade Iraq in which about one million people died and which gave rise to the terrorist group, ISIS. The rumours gained momentum when the US began to withdraw its personnel from some countries in the region.
Israel’s attacks occurred two days before talks between Iran and the US were about to resume in Oman. Iran was due to respond to US demands that it discontinues all enrichment. While it was expected that Iran would have maintained its right to enrich uranium, it was believed that it would have offered compromise proposals whereby it would not be actually enriching uranium. Diplomacy was therefore working and the potential existed for a resolution. It is presumably for this reason that Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that Iran is not sure it can trust America after Israeli attack. He said the talks were a cover to enable the Israelis to prepare for war with Iran.
Israel considered that an opportune moment existed for its war against Iran as the latter was lulled into a false sense of security, not expecting the imposition of a war by Israel while diplomatic negotiations with the US were ongoing. Providing the additional backdrop was the genocidal war against Gaza, following its terroristic attack against Israeli civilians on October 7 2023, resulting in the destruction of Gaza, the murder of over 55,000 Gazans, starvation of its population, killing hundreds as they gather to collect food, the decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and its substantial weakening, the invasion of Lebanon and occupation of parts of the southern region, the removal of Bashar Assad of Syria and installation of a compromised President, the former Al Qaeda adherent, Ahmed Al Sharaa and the destruction of Syria’s military capacity and the occupation of its southern parts. Israel is therefore on a roll, feeling its power, and considering that the weakening of Iran’s state and non-state allies in the area presents the best possible opportunity to go after its main political and military challenger in the region and establish its and the US’s unrivaled hegemony. It has also to be noted that Iran remains the region’s only vocal supporter of Palestinian rights while the Arab world has fallen silent.
While Iran has stated that it has not abandoned diplomacy and will return to the talks with the US if Israel ceases its bombardment, the issue of the US’s entry into the war on Israel’s side remains an open question. President Trump has promised a decision in two weeks, presumably waiting for Iran to declare “unconditional surrender,” as President Trump has demanded.
Iran has some hard decisions to make. In its unofficial contacts with the US, it can indicate that it will agree to dismantle its nuclear programme and not to enrich uranium. This may persuade the US to pressure Israel to end the bombing, resume negotiations and enter an agreement. This will be tantamount to surrender, which Iran has ruled out. In rejecting this course, Iran will understand that there is a strong possibility that the US will enter the war in support of Israel in order to destroy the Fordo nuclear facility, which Israel does not have the capacity to do, but which the US has. If this occurs, it will lead inexorably to the expansion of the war to US military assets in the region and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, through which much shipping passes. The US may then respond to the bombing of other ostensibly military targets in Iran which will obviously include civilian targets. The objective will undoubtedly include regime change. Where this will end is anybody’s guess.
We have seen a similar playbook before with the US’s claim that Iraq was building a nuclear bomb and invaded Iraq to end the nuclear programme and remove the Saddam Hussain regime. The war in Iraq lasted between 2003 and 2011 and its effects are still being felt. As we watch in dismay, we can only hope that good sense will prevail on all sides.