GENERAL ELECTIONS – A BOLD AND DECISIVE MOVE


There can be no doubt that APNU’s decision to support the AFC’s no confidence motion when it is tabled in the National Assembly is a bold and decisive move. Political parties generally do not take such chances without some indication that they have a good opportunity of winning the elections or at least changing the political configuration. Winning in Guyana’s context and under our constitutional provisions means one of the two opposition parties obtaining an absolute majority or a plurality which will enable it to have the presidency and form the government, whether coalition or not. Changing the political configuration means reducing the PPP/C’s vote and increasing that of the opposition short of ‘winning’ as described above.

The opposition parties have no scientific way of knowing the state of support for political parties. They can only guess, not assess on the basis of evidence, whether either one of the above possibilities exist. They obviously know something that the public does not know because they must be aware that the PPP has worked assiduously to rebuild its infrastructure and has been claiming that it will win the elections. The opposition parties may well have set their sights on an even more modest goal – obtaining the same or similar results in the hope that it will prove to the PPP that it cannot sustain minority governance.

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POST CONGRESS PERSPECTIVES AND LEGITIMATE EXPECTATIONS


Even if the PNCR had been minded to support the proposed AFC motion of no confidence against the Government, it is not now likely. The controversies at its Congress were publicly manifested in allegations of violence and election rigging. These same allegations have bedeviled the PNCR for decades. Many fear that Party because of it. While there was no violence at the Congress and the leadership has dismissed allegations of vote rigging, the firing of a gunshot and the loud protestations of disenfranchisement were the worst kind of public relations disaster for the PNCR.

While the PNCR is in disarray and the AFC’s motion of no confidence now appearing as if it will go nowhere, the PPP’s consistent strategy gives it renewed comfort. It knows that it has a minority government and is employing every strategy to keep it functioning. It has rejected out of hand any form of coalition. It intends to stay in office for as long as possible. Whenever this is no longer possible, it will dissolve the National Assembly and call elections, which the PPP/C believes it will win. This is a fixed strategy from which it is not deviating. It has been paying dividends in terms of retaining office.

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THE PNCR CONGRESS AND DAVID GRANGER’S LEADERSHIP


The PNCR Congress is always an interesting time for political observers, not least because in recent times there has always been a challenge to the leaders and energetic contests for other positions. In recent years both Robert Corbin and David Granger have had to overcome serious challenges. The untimely passing a few years ago of the widely respected Winston Murray, derailed what would have been the most serious contest in the PNCR leadership, perhaps in its history.

The leadership contest this time around is taking place between two talented and experienced Party operatives with impeccable credentials in terms of how they are seen by PNCR members and supporters. Mr. Norton has been in the public eye for a longer period and represents a more militant approach within the PNCR, even though he has worked to modify this image and has demonstrated an interest in wider policy matters. Mr. Granger is the incumbent and has already stamped an image of decisive and thoughtful leadership of both the PNCR and the Opposition. I listened to a speech by him last Wednesday at the opening of a seminar on Parliament, the People and the Media. He has completely lost the hesitancy and soft tones displayed when he was first elected. He is now a commanding presence with a forceful and coherent message.

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NO CONFIDENCE


The AFC released on Friday last a letter to the President of Guyana in which it advised that it will be tabling in the National Assembly a motion of no confidence in the Government. The reason stated in the letter is that the AFC finds it “wholly unacceptable” that the Government is spending from the Consolidated Fund in excess of the amount approved by the National Assembly under the Appropriations Act.

Under article 106(6) the Constitution provides that “the Cabinet including the President shall resign if the Government is defeated by a vote of a majority of all the elected members of the National Assembly on a vote of confidence.” Sub-article (7) states that “notwithstanding its defeat, the Government shall remain in office and shall hold an election within three months…”

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THE CENSUS AND ITS POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS.


The census figures substantially confirm the analysis I made in an article “The Future of the PPP” published in November, 2012. I had argued at that time that declining Indian population had an impact on the election results of 2011, having regard to ethnic voting patterns. I had also indicated that the effect of a slowly decreasing Indian population could be seen in voting patterns and results since 1992. The census results show that in Region 6, a stronghold of the PPP, the population declined by 15,000 at the end f 2012. Adding Regions 5 and 3, also strongholds of the PPP, there was a total decline of 20,000 persons.

There was no publication of figures indicating the sizes of the various ethnic groups in Guyana. I had predicted at that time that the Indian population is likely to have gone below 40 percent. The census of 2002 showed the Indian population to be 42 percent and I had based my prediction on the prior rate of decline. I do not know the reason for the non-publication of these figures but it is quite possible that it is because the Indian population is now below 40 percent.

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