Guyana’s economy has been the focus of attention over the past two weeks with the recent Investment Conference. In the keynote address by the President of the CDB, Dr. Warren Smith, Guyana’s economic progress was commended. Recent growth figures, though modest, have been a cause for optimism, especially since most countries in the region have been struggling. However, this must be assessed on the basis of the past. The economic problems triggered by mismanagement, corruption and the oil crisis from the early 1970s were only interrupted between the second half of the Hoyte years and the Jagan presidency when it showed some growth. Thereafter growth again slowed for nearly a decade and resumed about four years ago.
The economy bequeathed to us in 1966 consisted of the export of sugar, rice and bauxite. Over forty-five years later, in 2013, the economy consists essentially of the same features, exporting mainly sugar, rice, bauxite, forest products and gold. Bauxite exports have reduced substantially since the 1970s and sugar is struggling. Our exports have little or no value added. In other words, there has been no significant structural change in our export profile for nearly fifty years. While the buoyant prices for commodity and raw material exports and remittances have been the main reason for our economic performance over the past four years or so, the dangers of reliance on this model is palpable. The sharp and continuing drop in gold prices speaks to the dangers.
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