THE IMPENDING FALL OF POKROVSK
Pokrovsk, a town in north-east Ukraine in the Donetsk region, has long been surrounded by Russian troops and the noose has been tightening. It is reported that Russian soldiers, who are now fighting in devastated parts of the town, will soon capture it. After the fall of Pokrovsk, a logistics hub of road and rail links, the way would then be open for Russia to advance against the last remaining strongholds in Donetsk. The BBC reports as follows: “If Pokrovsk falls, defending its satellite city of Myrnohrad becomes untenable and Russian troops would then be able to turn their focus to the battle for Kostyantynivka to the north-east and the rest of the so-called “fortress belt” cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.” The capture of these cities will substantially complete Russia’s defeat of Ukraine’s forces in the Donetsk region. With the Luhansk region almost fully in the hands of Russia, the entire Donbas region of northeastern Ukraine will be in Russian hands. This is the area which Russia has incorporated as part of its homeland.
It is suggested by some western experts that, the areas being heavily fortified, Ukraine may be able to successfully defend them, if more western long-range weapons are provided to strike oil facilities inside Russia, and even more sanctions are imposed. Other experts, lacking confidence in the fortifications, and the capacity of Ukraine’s troops, suggest that Russia’s military operations in Donetsk will take several years. But Pokrovsk was also heavily fortified and defended and it succumbed.
Russia’s military strategy of slow strangulation by encirclement and targeted penetration have proved not only to be successful but to reduce casualties on both sides. Of course, it is far slower than direct confrontations, which is why the Russian advance has been deliberate. With Ukraine’s depletion of military equipment and lack of adequate, fresh, troops to replace or rebuild forces at the front, the fortifications at the areas under threat from Russia are not going to help. Due to the lack of success on the battlefield despite tanks, war planes, long range missiles, and now the drying up of resources from the west, many believe that Ukraine’s capacity to continue defending itself will soon end.
The impending defeat of Ukraine has profound implications for the west and the rest of the world. The west ignored Russia’s consistent warnings that NATO’s presence on its borders, specifically in Ukraine and Georgia if they were to become members, would be an existential threat. The west ignored Russia’s warnings and doubled down on its efforts. It encouraged a coup in Ukraine which replaced the independent president, Viktor Yanukovych, with the pro-western, Petro Poroshenko. Immediately, pogroms against the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine commenced and armed hostilities broke out. Agreements to resolve these issues by giving a high degree of autonomy to the eastern regions and guarantee the use the Russian language were not upheld. As the bad faith of the west became more pronounced by the failure to implement the Minsk 2 agreement, thousands of ethnic Russians were being killed and Ukraine was being heavily armed by the west, Russia obviously considered that it had no alternative but to act.
During the unipolar interlude which took place after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 when US and western pundits considered the US to have prevailed in the Cold War, and the world to have entered a permanent stage of the triumph of liberal democracy, the west assigned to itself the task of imposing peace and democracy on the world. NATO expanded eastward despite Russia’s objections, Iraq and Afghanistan was invaded, intervention took place in the Balkans by the bombing of Serbia, Libya was bombed and subverted and its government overthrown. Civil war was fomented in Syria. This hubris also resulted in NATO deciding in 1994 to invite Georgia and Ukraine to become members of NATO. The pivot to Asia for the barely concealed effort to ‘contain’ China took place. The unipolar period ended when China rose and Russia recovered from the Yeltsin era, but the west did not notice.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine produced a draft agreement. It is now well-known that the west sabotaged the negotiations when then Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, travelled to Turkey and persuaded President Zelensky not to sign, but to fight. With the hubris still intact, the west framed the conflict as the beginning of Russia’s attempt to restore its empire, and that the issue is one of morality with a dictatorship attempting to destroy Ukraine’s democracy. The west apparently promised Ukraine military help and sanctions against Russia and suggested that victory was certain. The western plan is now in shambles. Multi-polarity has returned with different characteristics and dimensions, in a different world.
NATO’s unsuccessful military strategy, the severe damage to Europe’s economy by the deprivation of cheap Russian gas, the west’s military and political incapacity to give Ukraine the assistance it needed in the face of Russia’s resilience, the alliance between Russia and China, the refusal of much of the world outside of Europe to get on board the anti-Russian train, are all demonstrating that western strategies based on unipolarity and domination have now failed.
