THE US-ISRAEL WAR ON IRAN

In explaining the reason for the war by the United States against Iran, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said it was because of fears that Iran would retaliate in response to planned Israeli action against Tehran. “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action; we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” Rubio said. President Trump had a different take on the issue. “I might have forced their (Israel’s) hand,” he told reporters in the Oval Office as he met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.” These shifting and contradictory explanations have led critics of the administration from both the rightwing, Republican MAGA base and many Democrats to assert that the administration was acting at the behest of Israel and not in the interest of the United States.

The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, by bombing the compound in which he lived and worked openly, was no doubt expected by the US and Israel to trigger the collapse of the Iranian government and open the possibility for the US and Israel to dictate the replacement and control the agenda and decision-making of a new administration. In any event they could have declared victory and ended the war. Neither happened and the objectives of the war remained obscure as the bombings against Iran continued, killing 165 schoolgirls and descending into the virtual carpet bombing of Tehran with attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. Iran responded by widespread attacks on US military facilities in the Gulf states, which it has now discontinued and for which it has apologized, and attacks on Israel. Six US soldiers have been killed.

Iran, having rejected talks with the US for a ceasefire, President Trump has now demanded an “unconditional surrender.” It is clear that Iran sees the US/Israeli action as an existential threat to its existence and its clear strategy is, while it will suffer severe damage, and cannot militarily defeat the US and Israel, that it will inflict as much damage as it can on these countries to such an extent that they will hesitate before launching another attack. Iran’s strategy in the 12-day war, and earlier Israeli attacks, of responding in such a way that the war does not escalate, has been abandoned in favour of the muscular response which is now being taken.

As the first week of the war has concluded without an obvious off ramp, since “unconditional surrender” by the Iranians is not likely, President Trump is encouraging the invasion by the Kurds to commence a ground war. Observers believe that an air war, no matter how destructive to Iran, will be unable by itself to force a surrender by the Iranians or drive them to the bargaining table at which they sat twice in negotiations with the Americans, only to have war unleashed on them both times in the midst of the discussions. This version of a ground war, which can only succeed if American boots are also on the ground, will result in mass casualties greater, as President Trump would say, than has been seen before, and would have incalculable consequences on the support that President enjoys in the US and for the results for the Republican Party in the midterm elections. We are therefore looking at a situation which is playing out to Iran’s advantage, that is to say, that it might result in enormous damage to Israel, create potential political problems for President Trump, resulting in them being forced to declare victory and end the war. If this happens, Iran would have achieved its objectives.

Iran has long been a thorn in the sides of the US and Israel. The US was involved in the seminal event in modern Iranian history – the overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadegh government in 1953 for attempting to nationalize the oil industry after it resisted paying higher taxes. It imposed the autocratic Shah who ruled with a repressive, pro-Western, iron fist for a quarter of a century. Iran sees Israel not only the representative of US interests in the region, but a settler colonial, apartheid, state that suppresses Palestinian rights with genocidal fury and seeks hegemonistic authority in the region. It has diminished “terrorist” groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and has broken up, or assisted in the breaking up, of countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Libya. The US and Israel seek to do the same with Iran which is the only country that stands in Israel’s way. But Iran has now clearly decided to fight back. Iran would be expecting that the destruction of their country will be extensive. But “winning” for Iran appears to mean survival of the state and its constitutional order, and a bloody nose for its enemies who will think twice about starting a war in future.