Guyana welcomes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Apart from relations with Caricom in relation to energy security, illegal immigration and criminal networks as defined by US Assistant Secretary of State Mauricio Claver-Carone, the issues of importance in Guyana’s relations with the US are Venezuela, China and Cuba.
In the decade or so since the US has taken a forthright position in relation to its support for the 1899 Arbitral Award and the validity of Guyana’s border, relations with the US have warmed considerably, particularly since its positive role in upholding democracy in 2020 and the production of oil by ExxonMobil. On several occasions in the past, most recently earlier this month, US authorities have criticized Venezuela’s unlawful conduct towards Guyana.
Guyana’s major issue at the present time is Venezuela’s growing belligerence against Guyana in defiance of international law. Venezuela’s violation of international law started since 1966, some months after the signing of the Geneva Agreement, when it invaded Guyana’s half of Ankoko. It continues until today with the intrusion in Guyana’s maritime area, its EEZ, of Venezuela’s warship and threatening conduct towards FPSO vessels being operated by Exxon Mobil in its oil operations. After nearly sixty years, Venezuela has now become more hostile, more aggressive and more threatening, leading Guyana to conclude that, unless restrained, Venezuela might feel bold enough to intensify its aggression towards Guyana. Unless Venezuela is either aware that it will meet a force that could potentially be irresistible, its thirst for Guyana’s territory will not be quenched.
It is not likely that the US will establish a military base in Guyana or station troops here. But Mr. Claver-Carone is reported to have said that the US would make sure that Guyana has the security necessary in its territorial dispute with Venezuela. Let’s hope that US would be prepared to deploy in a demonstrable manner one or more of the multiplicity of initiatives that are available to it to ensure that Venezuela is fully aware that any trampling on Guyana’s sovereignty is likely to be met with condign consequences.
The worldwide competition between China and the US is likely to be an issue for Caricom at large and for Guyana. The US would want a reduction of China’s influence in the region which has seen a significant increase in economic relations. The problem for the Region is that the US and Europe are not providing the aid or economic investment that is provided by China. With poverty high in the Region, it can hardly afford to dispense with its Chinese relations. As regards Guyana, the problem for the US is that China is one of three partners with ExxonMobil in the production of oil which the US would be very interested in wanting to protect. Unless the US has some kind of leverage which would enable it to disrupt the partnership between ExxonMobil, Hess and CNNOC, it is going to find itself in a position where, in defending Guyana against Venezuela, it is also defending China’s interests. The conundrum here is that Venezuela is a close ally of China, which is interested in protecting that alliance because Venezuela owes China over US$50 billion.
China has other economic relations with Guyana. These include investments in many areas including being a significant partner in Guyana’s infrastructural development. China’s pursuit of business opportunities, including infrastructure contracts, cannot be ignored by Guyana because Guyana does not have the capacity to undertake large scale projects and US and European firms are hardly interested. Any publication of the names of bidders for projects show an overwhelming number of Chinese firms and few others. No doubt the Guyana Government will invite the Secretary of State to encourage US firms to bid. Guyana cannot wait on US firms to develop the country.
Cuba has been a long and loyal friend to Guyana and many other Caribbean countries. Its assistance in providing medical services has been so vast that in several countries, if Cuba withdraws its medical support, the medical system will collapse. Apart from the support to Guyana’s medical system, the Cuban Government has long been educating doctors for Guyana. Most of Guyana’s doctors have been educated on Cuban scholarships. Many have become distinguished specialists. The heads of the governments of Trinidad, Barbados and St. Vincent have been courageous enough to declare that they will willingly give up their visas to the US if that is the price they have to pay to maintain their relations with the Cuban medical system.
The medical assistance that Cuba provides to Guyana is based on an agreement. No doubt the government will show the agreement to the Secretary of State or other relevant US officials and enquire what is wrong with the agreement or what it would like to be changed that is not ideological or based on US considerations that are not relevant to Guyana. If it related to Cuba’s political system or its record on human rights, Guyana would not find it difficult to find many countries that the US supports with political systems and human rights records that are anathema to the US.