US CAPTURES MADURO
In a swift, surgical strike, the US has captured Maduro and his wife after areas in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, was bombed. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said: “The United States has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicholas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country. The operation was done in conjunction with US Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M. at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.” At his press conference, President Trump, accusing Venezuela of stealing US’s oil, said: “We will run Venezuela” until a government is established.
Extensive strikes in Caracas and elsewhere in Venezuela preceded the capture of Maduro. President Gustavo Petro of Columbia listed in a post on X a number of sites that were attacked, although these were not officially confirmed by anyone. They include military bases, air bases, airports and official buildings. Venezuelan officials have accused the US of bombing civilian targets. The US operation appears to be limited to the capture and removal of Maduro because, to all appearances, the Venezuelan government and administration appear to be intact. Venezuela’s Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, called for proof of life of Maduro and his wife. Minister of Defence, Vladimir Padrino, says Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said “we will overcome.” US officials have indicated that Maduro will stand trial in the US. Several countries, including Cuba and Russia, have condemned the “aggression.” While China has in the past condemned US actions against Venezuela, it has not so far made any comment on its actions against Maduro. China is a major creditor of Venezuela and would be looking not only to this issue but also to the potential loss or restriction of oil supplies from Venezuela.
To all appearances, there are no internal disturbances and international outrage has been muted. Maduro has lost both internal and external support because of the rigging of the elections last year. As a result, he is widely considered to be an illegitimate leader and international sympathy for him has vanished, although the violations of international law that attached to the operation attracted condemnation. This should be a lesson for those whose political DNA is etched with election rigging as a means of achieving or sustaining political power. In this era and in this region, election rigging has no future.
The US action, a serious challenge to international law, for which Venezuela itself has no respect and has violated multiple times as regards the Border Controversy with Guyana, appears to be limited to the removal of Maduro. No action has been taken which suggests that the US has any immediate military plans for the removal of the government. While it is highly unlikely that the US will attempt the traditional foreign intervention by way of war against Venezuela, with or without the landing of troops, US policy makers are likely to consider that the mere removal of Maduro is unfinished business. No doubt the US would be attempting regime change by persuading the Venezuelan government to leave office peacefully. The remaining members would probably be happy to do so for fear of a similar fate that befell Maduro.
The action against Venezuela must be assessed against the New US National Security Strategy (NSS) announced on 5 December. The Trump Corollary to the strategy, established by the Munroe Doctrine in 1823, which prohibited European powers from intervening in Latin America, provided that the US has the right to invoke the Munroe Doctrine and will utilize its military forces in the region to control migrant routes, drug trafficking and to gain access to energy and mineral resources. The NSS contemplates a hemisphere free from hostile incursions or ownership of key assets and to ensure continued access to key locations. The NSS proposes that the US be ‘preeminent in the Western hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity…allowing us to assert ourselves with confidence where and when necessary.’ Caricom has not reacted to this New National Security Strategy which is a modernized and updated version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at military dominance of the region, military intervention when necessary, control of its resources, and the exclusion of competitors such as China. Caricom’s advocacy of the region as a zone of peace directly conflicts with the NSS.
Guyanese are probably happy that Maduro has been removed and that the life span of the Venezuelan government is likely to be of limited duration. Many believe that the regime had bad intentions towards Guyana and its policies made that abundantly clear. While it is unlikely that the Venezuelan opposition, if it eventually takes office, will not relinquish Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo, it is hoped that a more enlightened, rational and less threatening posture would emerge. A government with popular support, unlike Maduro’s, will have no need to whip up nationalist frenzy over the Essequibo. Guyana would be hoping that the case before the ICJ would proceed to hearing this year and that Venezuela will accept the decision, whatever it is.
