CUBA

Flush from the decapitation of the Venezuelan regime by the capture of President Nicholas Maduro in a slick, midnight, military raid on Maduro’s residence in Caracas, in which 32 Cubans who were defending Maduro were killed, the US Government felt a similar strategy in Iran, but killing not capturing its leadership, would succeed. Almost simultaneously, it adopted another strategy, economic strangulation, with similar objectives, in Cuba. The Iranian economy is in dire straits, but its successful resistance has resulted in a stalemate, but with Iran exercising dominance. The Cuban economy has been spectacularly degraded by the blockade, which now includes oil, and there is talk about how long the Cuban Government can hold out in the absence of fuel. But Cuba, like Iran but unlike Venezuela, has not succumbed.

Complaints by the United States against Cuba included the lack of economic and political freedom and ‘terrorism.’ Cuba has had four periods of ‘reforms.’ The nationalization of the economy and establishment of a political system that included existing political parties into one Communist Party followed the Revolution in 1959. The collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, a major economic partner of Cuba, led to additional reforms. The circulation of the US dollar was legalized and small scale, self-employment, businesses were permitted. The tourist industry was extensively expanded with the injection of foreign investment and became one of Cuba’s most popular and largest foreign exchange earner.  The reforms of 2008-2014 under the Presidency of Raul Castro allowed a broader degree of private activity in retail and services, access by private farmers to unused state lands and a new foreign investment law.

Earlier this year Cuba announced 176 reforms, the largest since the Revolution in 1959. These removed restrictions on company sizes, abolished dozens of prohibited business categories, and allowed individuals to own multiple businesses. Private banks and partial dollarization of the economy were allowed. Private and state enterprises were allowed to import directly and foreign and domestic entities can acquire stakes in state-owned businesses. Foreign investors can now form joint ventures exclusively with the state. Private, foreign, participation in wholesale fuel distribution and energy sectors, alongside authorization for private entities like gas stations, pharmacies, and fast-food franchises are now permitted. Greater autonomy to state-run enterprises and municipal administrations, transitioning some administrative burdens toward private frameworks are now granted. But it appears that the US is not yet satisfied.

According to reports, discussions are ongoing with the US for additional measures, including a change in the leadership, which will now facilitate a change in the political leadership which has not been fruitful so far. While these discussions are taking plans, plans are afoot by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to put more pressure on Cuba to implement more changes. Subsequent to a visit by CIA Director earlier this year the CIA has set up a task force to intensify the pressure on Cuba. Whether this pressure will include military action is not known. But the charges against Raul Castro by the US of murder and conspiracy to murder arising from the downing of an airplane in Cuban air space, as alleged by Cuba, appears to presage a Maduro-like capture. Cuba is still on the US list of state sponsor of terrorism.

Cuba now faces the worst economic crisis since the Revolution in 1959. There are little or no state services, medical operations are carried out by cell phone lights, there are two or three hours of electricity a day, mountains of garbage are in the streets, public transportation has all but ceased to exist and much more. The blockade against Cuba has been widely condemned for years in the UN. US lawmakers and journalists have recently visited and have exposed the hardships Cubans are facing. Caricom has expressed solidarity although Guyana and Trinidad have distanced themselves from such sympathetic considerations. In Guyana’s case, it has departed from over fifty years of close friendship, not acknowledging the debt it owes to Cuba for its health system. It is clear that Cuba intends to resist the US’s pressures to change its leadership to one that is more amenable to US wishes. Raul Castro’s grandson, Raul Gonsalez Castro, has been frequently mentioned as someone the US is prepared to work with. There are others. We all hope. For the sake of the courageous Cuban people that matters are resolved as soon as possible so that the Cubans can rebuild their lives, resume their friendship with the Caribbean peoples and continue their great contribution to our region. (Background information have been taken from articles in the New York Times by Adam Entous, Tyler Pagerlulian and his colleagues