THE VICTORY OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN THE US MID-TERM ELECTIONS

The sweeping victory of the Democratic Party in the US mid-term elections has created waves among the political class. It is not unprecedented for the minority party to capture control of both House and Senate. Republicans took control of both House and Senate from the Democrats in 1994 and Democrats repeated the process against the Republicans in 2006. The Democratic Party held 257 seats, as opposed to 255 at the time of writing, in 2009-2011 following Barack Obama’s historic victory in 2008.  It obtained 294 in the 1974 post-Watergate elections. The questions now are: What will the Democratic Party do with its House and Senate majorities? And what does the change mean for Guyana?

There were many issues raised by Democratic candidates during the election campaign. But the single issue that united the Democratic Party and all candidates was that of ‘affordability.’ The issue had exploded into prominence during the election campaign of Zoran Mamdani in 2025 for Mayor of New York. Since then it has caught fire in the US and has motivated both Democratic Party candidates and supporters to campaign and turn out to vote. 

There are a variety of reasons for price increases in the United States. These include the unpopular war unleashed against Iran which has resulted in increased gasoline, diesel and fertilizer prices which have a significant impact on food prices. The tariff war introduced by the Administration against most countries of the world, but particularly China, the EU, UK and Canada have also resulted in increased prices even though the US Supreme Court has somewhat limited the capacity of the Administration to impose tariffs. High interest rates flowing from imbalances in the economy, particularly the debt of $40 trillion, which is more that 100 percent of the US GDP, have kept interest and mortgage rates high. This affects not only inflation which is climbing but unemployment which is also rising. 

Corruption was a major issue in the elections. Financial dealings by President Trump and members of his family have been frowned upon by wide swaths of the media and the swamp that President Trump had promised to drain in his first term has become more extensive drawing into it wider sections of the oligarchy which is flourishing from reduced taxes which have been facilitated by cuts in Medicaid and Medicare. According to the Congressional Budget Office additional deficits automatically trigger cuts under the Statutory Pay As You Go Act 2010. For 2026 there would be automatic reductions in Medicare of $45 billion. The ten-year cumulative cuts from 2026 in Medicare would be $536 billion. The electorate reacted to this situation as well.

President Trump’s immediate reaction to the worst loss by the Republican Party in decades has been to appoint Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller, as Chief of Staff in place of Susie Wiles, who has resigned. Most observers are not clear as to the objective of this appointment. But Stephen Miller is responsible for the Administration’s immigration policies, and he has overseen their enforcement with singular aggression. Americans have been killed in Minnesota protesting immigration enforcement and others killed and injured elsewhere. This has resulted in a substantial drop in the Hispanic vote from 48 percent in 2024 to 20 percent. The Asian American vote for Republicans declined by 17 percent. American observers suggest that Stephen Miller was appointed Chief of Staff to bring the same aggressive, hard line, approach to Democrats in Congress who will seek to investigate the Administration. How far this will succeed is left to be seen.

The Democratic Party’s control of Congress will likely transform its agenda to develop measures to reduce the cost of living which is the main mandate delivered by the electorate. To achieve this in short order, pressures are likely to increase to end the unpopular Iran war. Already both Vice President JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. have blamed the Iran war for the poor showing of the Republican Party at the elections. The end of the war will bring immediate reduction to the price for gasoline, diesel and other products. Other economic and financial measures are likely to engage the attention of Congress and result in contentious debates. Other issues likely to attract the attention of Congress are the financial dealings of President Trump and members of the Trump family as well as the issues surrounding Jeffrey Epstein. But hopefully Congress will also find the time to consider regulations for AI which is becoming an issue or urgent importance. 

It is not likely that relations between Guyana and the US or Caricom and the US will be affected by the changes that have taken place in the US. The policies of the US Government towards Latin America and the Caribbean that have been put in place have irreversibly transformed the situation in Venezuela and is in the process of doing so in Cuba. Caricom has no way of influencing US policy in Cuba, one of the regions major benefactors, in view of its divided approach to US policy. Guyana has already chosen its path of firm alliance with US foreign policy.